Saint Peter’s and Oakland are two teams that Kentucky could lose to. Both times, the New York Giants have the ability to defeat the New England Patriots. The Premier League, which is by far the richest league in soccer, has the potential to flame out of UEFA competitions, while Morocco has the ability to win consecutive matches against Barcelona and Portugal.

During the quarterfinal round of the Champions League and the Europa League matches, a great deal of hope and optimism for the English team were dashed. The possibility of Manchester City winning a “Double Treble” was eliminated when Real Madrid defeated them in a knockout match for the second time in three years. Antonio Rudiger’s penalty kick was the deciding factor. An attempt to make a comeback at Atalanta rapidly failed, which put an end to Liverpool’s dreams of sending Jurgen Klopp into retirement with their very own unique triple, which consists of the League Cup, the Europa League, and the Premier League.
The continuous revival of Arsenal continues in general, but the club’s chances of reaching a Champions League semifinal for the first time in fifteen years were dashed in Munich, the same spot where many of its hopes for the Champions League in the 21st century have been dashed. In light of the fact that West Ham was also defeated by Bayer Leverkusen, the only thing that kept England in any tournament was Aston Villa’s comeback victory over Lille in the Europa Conference League. This victory was helped along by a goal scored in the final minute of regulation.

In the meantime, Barcelona dropped both their lead and their composure against Paris Saint-Germain, Germany’s two most powerful clubs are in the semifinals of the Champions League for the first time in eleven years, and Bayer Leverkusen, which has taken eight points from those two heavyweights in four matches this season, continues to be unbeatable in the Europa League.

In spite of the fact that these competitions are completely random, we always make a beeline for the narrative machine as soon as we discover noteworthy outcomes. All things considered, the Premier League is grossly overrated! The Bundesliga is not given enough credit! PSG’s plan was on the right track the whole time! Now that we have a few days to think about what we witnessed, let’s discuss what we truly learned from these fantastic quarterfinal rounds, as well as what we did not learn because of them.


Not only does money matter, but so does everything else.
The following is something that ought to go without saying, but just in case: In spite of the fact that it has been eliminated in the quarterfinals, the Premier League continues to be without a doubt the best league in Europe (and, consequently, the globe). In addition to having the most money, the greatest depth, the most roster value, and so on, it ranks first. Prior to the current season, it had produced seven finals in the previous six rounds of the Champions League. Furthermore, according to the most recent benchmarking study published by UEFA, twenty clubs in the Premier League bring in around the same amount of money as all 38 clubs in LaLiga and the Bundesliga, as well as all 642 clubs in the Bundesliga.
On the other hand, it was almost reassuring to realize that the financial might of a league is not sufficient to merely accomplish the task at hand. The Premier League has not been able to transform its depth into significant success in Europe over the course of the past two seasons. Even though Manchester City (Champions League) and West Ham (Europa Conference League) both triumphed in their respective competitions during the spring of 2017, they were the only two English teams to even make it to the semifinals. Chelsea (Champions League) and Manchester United (Europa League) were the only other teams to even make it to the quarterfinals of their respective competitions. These two English teams, Newcastle and Manchester United, both finished bottom in their respective groups and were eliminated in the quarterfinals of the Champions League. This season, only two English teams even made it to the knockout rounds of the competition.

In spite of the fact that the Premier League has moved further away from the pitch in terms of finances, it has not moved far enough away to be able to overcome the “Stuff Happens principle” that is associated with knockout events. Thomas Tuchel of Bayern Munich was able to outsmart Mikel Arteta of Arsenal, just as Jurgen Klopp of Liverpool was able to outsmart Gian Piero Gasperini of Atalanta. (I am aware that Liverpool will not recruit the 66-year-old to take Klopp’s position as manager, but dammit, is that a pretty seductive concept all the same.)

City, on the other hand, appeared to outplay Real Madrid over the course of two legs, as they attempted 45 shots to the Blancos’ 22 and generated 3.5 xG while allowing just 2.1 shots on goal at their disposal. However, they were unable to create a significant number of opportunities of a high quality, and they were unable to prevail over Real Madrid’s timely brilliance and a penalty shootout.
In addition, the results of the quarterfinals of the Champions League were not any kind of success for European parity. This year’s semifinalists still ranked first (Real Madrid), fourth (PSG), sixth (Bayern), and 12th (Borussia Dortmund) in terms of overall revenue in 2023. In fact, in terms of raw revenue, PSG’s victory over Barcelona (third in revenue) was the only quarterfinal “upset,” and it wasn’t much of an upset. The Premier League may be the richest league in the world, but this year’s semifinalists finished in first, fourth, sixth, and 12th, respectively.

Despite this, the richest league did not provide the richest outcomes, which resulted in a significant shift in the coefficients race. In the newly expanded Champions League that will take place the following year, two bids will be awarded to the nations who have achieved the greatest overall success in the three UEFA competitions. After the respective UEFA rounds of 16, Opta’s power ratings gave England an 82% chance of securing the other bid. Italy has secured one of those bids thanks to great runs in the Europa League (where it had three quarterfinalists and two semifinalists) and the Europa Conference League (where Fiorentina is in the semis for the second year in a row). Another bid has been secured by England.

Due to the fact that the outcomes were so unexpected, the odds are currently at 1% after the quarterfinals, with Germany having a 99% chance of winning at this point. It is possible that the race will shift back toward the Premier League if Villa wins both legs in the semifinals of the Europa Conference League versus Olympiacos and goes on to win the title. This would be the case if all of Germany’s remaining entries not only lose in the semifinals but also win no more than one leg or draw no more than two legs. One can never be sure of what will occur. However, the odds are not in your favor. It would appear that the richest league in the world will not have the most spots available in the Champions League for the following year.

Once again, Real Madrid triumphs by prioritizing quality above quantity.
Real Madrid defeated Liverpool in the final of the Champions League two years ago, despite the fact that they were outshot by a considerable margin of 24-4. On the other hand, despite the fact that it appears that Real Madrid is perpetually on the receiving end of good fortune in the Champions League, it is not entirely a matter of luck. Despite the fact that they were vastly outshot, they were also responsible for the finest shots of the match, which ultimately proved to be the deciding factor. “In soccer, a single, high-value scoring chance can make an outsized difference, especially in a knockout game in which talent levels are even and stakes are high,” I wrote at the time. “In this game, a single scoring chance can make a huge difference.” Despite the fact that the small xG values start to add up and tell a tale when a considerable amount of time has passed, the huge chances are the ones that count the most in the short term.

Now that we have that out of the way, let’s take a closer look at the one-sided 1-1 game that Madrid and City played the previous week.

Only ten of City’s thirty-three shots were inside ten meters of the goal, and twenty-four of those shots were worth less than 0.08 units of gravity. Real Madrid maintained a constant presence behind the ball, gave out almost no high-quality looks, and challenged City to come up with something truly remarkable in order to defeat them. This was exactly what City did in the second leg of the semifinal matchup from the previous year, which was a fantastic 4-0 victory over the Blancos, as well as in the first leg of the quarterfinal matchup in Madrid. Out of the twelve shots that were tried in the leg, ten of them were worth less than 0.08 xG. However, they were able to score thanks to a deft free kick from Bernardo Silva that was 28 meters long (xG: 0.03), as well as absolute comets from Phil Foden (20 meters, 0.06 xG) and Josko Gvardiol (23 meters, 0.03 xG). Those are three goals scored from shots that, on average, would result in approximately 0.1 goals being scored.

Unfortunately for City, Real Madrid matched that technical brilliance with goals from Rodrygo and Fede Valverde, and they also earned an early own goal from Rúben Dias. That was a setback for City. This meant that City would have to come up with even more amazing strikes in the second leg of the match, which they were unable to do.

You are playing with fire when you attempt to win with fewer shots and a significantly lower xG total. This is true even if you are represented by Real Madrid. However, the team coached by Carlo Ancelotti possesses a talent that allows them to transform every significant match into a duel of magnificent moments. That is a fight that Real Madrid is capable of winning, and they typically do.